Decline of the boreal willow grouse (Lagopus lagopus) has been accelerated by more frequent snow-free springs.
Identifieur interne : 000259 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000258; suivant : 000260Decline of the boreal willow grouse (Lagopus lagopus) has been accelerated by more frequent snow-free springs.
Auteurs : Markus Melin [Finlande] ; Lauri Meht Talo [Finlande] ; Pekka Helle [Finlande] ; Katja Ikonen [Finlande] ; Tuula Packalen [Finlande]Source :
- Scientific reports [ 2045-2322 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
Climate change has influenced a range of species across the globe. Yet, to state a noted decline in the abundance of a given species as a consequence of a specific environmental change, for instance, spatially explicit long-term data are a prerequisite. This study assessed the extent to which prolonged snow-free periods in autumn and spring have contributed to the decline of the willow grouse, the only forest grouse changing into a white winter plumage. Time-series data of willow grouse numbers from summer surveys across the study area were integrated with local data on weather (snow cover), mammalian predator abundance and hunting intensity. Modelling was conducted with a hierarchical Bayesian Poisson model, acknowledging year-, area- and location-specific variability. The results show that while willow grouse numbers had decreased continuously across the study landscapes, the decrease was accelerated at the sites where, and during the years when the preceding April was the most snow-free. This indicates a mismatch between the change into a white winter plumage and the presence of snow, turning the bird into an ill-camouflaged prey. The results thus also confirm past hypotheses where local declines of the species have been attributed to prolonged snow-free periods. Across our study area, autumns and springs have become more snow-free, and the trend has been predicted to continue. Thus, in addition to conservation actions, the future of a species such as the willow grouse is also dependent on its ability to adapt to the changed environmental conditions.
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-63993-7
PubMed: 32332914
PubMed Central: PMC7181731
Affiliations:
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Box 111, 80101, Joensuu, Finland.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Finlande</country><wicri:regionArea>University of Eastern Finland, School of Computing, P.O. Box 111, 80101, Joensuu</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Joensuu</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Helle, Pekka" sort="Helle, Pekka" uniqKey="Helle P" first="Pekka" last="Helle">Pekka Helle</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Natural Resources Institute Finland, Paavo Havaksentie 3, 90570, Oulu, Finland.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Finlande</country><wicri:regionArea>Natural Resources Institute Finland, Paavo Havaksentie 3, 90570, Oulu</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Oulu</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ikonen, Katja" sort="Ikonen, Katja" uniqKey="Ikonen K" first="Katja" last="Ikonen">Katja Ikonen</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Natural Resources Institute Finland, Yliopistokatu 6b, 80100, Joensuu, Finland.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Finlande</country><wicri:regionArea>Natural Resources Institute Finland, Yliopistokatu 6b, 80100, Joensuu</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Joensuu</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Packalen, Tuula" sort="Packalen, Tuula" uniqKey="Packalen T" first="Tuula" last="Packalen">Tuula Packalen</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Natural Resources Institute Finland, Yliopistokatu 6b, 80100, Joensuu, Finland.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Finlande</country><wicri:regionArea>Natural Resources Institute Finland, Yliopistokatu 6b, 80100, Joensuu</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Joensuu</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Scientific reports</title><idno type="eISSN">2045-2322</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Climate change has influenced a range of species across the globe. Yet, to state a noted decline in the abundance of a given species as a consequence of a specific environmental change, for instance, spatially explicit long-term data are a prerequisite. This study assessed the extent to which prolonged snow-free periods in autumn and spring have contributed to the decline of the willow grouse, the only forest grouse changing into a white winter plumage. Time-series data of willow grouse numbers from summer surveys across the study area were integrated with local data on weather (snow cover), mammalian predator abundance and hunting intensity. Modelling was conducted with a hierarchical Bayesian Poisson model, acknowledging year-, area- and location-specific variability. The results show that while willow grouse numbers had decreased continuously across the study landscapes, the decrease was accelerated at the sites where, and during the years when the preceding April was the most snow-free. This indicates a mismatch between the change into a white winter plumage and the presence of snow, turning the bird into an ill-camouflaged prey. The results thus also confirm past hypotheses where local declines of the species have been attributed to prolonged snow-free periods. Across our study area, autumns and springs have become more snow-free, and the trend has been predicted to continue. Thus, in addition to conservation actions, the future of a species such as the willow grouse is also dependent on its ability to adapt to the changed environmental conditions.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="In-Process" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32332914</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>21</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">2045-2322</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>10</Volume><Issue>1</Issue><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>04</Month><Day>24</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Scientific reports</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Sci Rep</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Decline of the boreal willow grouse (Lagopus lagopus) has been accelerated by more frequent snow-free springs.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>6987</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1038/s41598-020-63993-7</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>Climate change has influenced a range of species across the globe. Yet, to state a noted decline in the abundance of a given species as a consequence of a specific environmental change, for instance, spatially explicit long-term data are a prerequisite. This study assessed the extent to which prolonged snow-free periods in autumn and spring have contributed to the decline of the willow grouse, the only forest grouse changing into a white winter plumage. Time-series data of willow grouse numbers from summer surveys across the study area were integrated with local data on weather (snow cover), mammalian predator abundance and hunting intensity. Modelling was conducted with a hierarchical Bayesian Poisson model, acknowledging year-, area- and location-specific variability. The results show that while willow grouse numbers had decreased continuously across the study landscapes, the decrease was accelerated at the sites where, and during the years when the preceding April was the most snow-free. This indicates a mismatch between the change into a white winter plumage and the presence of snow, turning the bird into an ill-camouflaged prey. The results thus also confirm past hypotheses where local declines of the species have been attributed to prolonged snow-free periods. Across our study area, autumns and springs have become more snow-free, and the trend has been predicted to continue. Thus, in addition to conservation actions, the future of a species such as the willow grouse is also dependent on its ability to adapt to the changed environmental conditions.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Melin</LastName><ForeName>Markus</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0001-7290-9203</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Natural Resources Institute Finland, Yliopistokatu 6b, 80100, Joensuu, Finland. markus.melin@luke.fi.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Mehtätalo</LastName><ForeName>Lauri</ForeName><Initials>L</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>University of Eastern Finland, School of Computing, P.O. Box 111, 80101, Joensuu, Finland.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Helle</LastName><ForeName>Pekka</ForeName><Initials>P</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Natural Resources Institute Finland, Paavo Havaksentie 3, 90570, Oulu, Finland.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Ikonen</LastName><ForeName>Katja</ForeName><Initials>K</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Natural Resources Institute Finland, Yliopistokatu 6b, 80100, Joensuu, Finland.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Packalen</LastName><ForeName>Tuula</ForeName><Initials>T</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Natural Resources Institute Finland, Yliopistokatu 6b, 80100, Joensuu, Finland.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D013485">Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>04</Month><Day>24</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>England</Country><MedlineTA>Sci Rep</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101563288</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>2045-2322</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2019</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>17</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2020</Year><Month>04</Month><Day>09</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>4</Month><Day>26</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>4</Month><Day>26</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>4</Month><Day>26</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>epublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32332914</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1038/s41598-020-63993-7</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">10.1038/s41598-020-63993-7</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC7181731</ArticleId></ArticleIdList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Sci Total Environ. 2000 Nov 15;262(3):253-61</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">11087031</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Trends Ecol Evol. 2020 Apr;35(4):329-335</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">31982147</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Science. 2011 Nov 25;334(6059):1124-7</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">22116885</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Trends Ecol Evol. 2000 Feb;15(2):56-61</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">10652556</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Glob Chang Biol. 2014 Dec;20(12):3872-82</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">24957266</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Glob Chang Biol. 2014 Apr;20(4):1115-25</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">24115403</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc. 2018 Aug;93(3):1478-1498</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">29504224</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Proc Biol Sci. 2001 Jan 7;268(1462):25-9</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">12123294</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>PLoS One. 2013 Nov 19;8(11):e81598</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">24260581</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2013 Apr 30;110(18):7360-5</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">23589881</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Glob Chang Biol. 2017 May;23(5):1832-1846</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">27633847</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>Finlande</li></country></list><tree><country name="Finlande"><noRegion><name sortKey="Melin, Markus" sort="Melin, Markus" uniqKey="Melin M" first="Markus" last="Melin">Markus Melin</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Helle, Pekka" sort="Helle, Pekka" uniqKey="Helle P" first="Pekka" last="Helle">Pekka Helle</name><name sortKey="Ikonen, Katja" sort="Ikonen, Katja" uniqKey="Ikonen K" first="Katja" last="Ikonen">Katja Ikonen</name><name sortKey="Meht Talo, Lauri" sort="Meht Talo, Lauri" uniqKey="Meht Talo L" first="Lauri" last="Meht Talo">Lauri Meht Talo</name><name sortKey="Packalen, Tuula" sort="Packalen, Tuula" uniqKey="Packalen T" first="Tuula" last="Packalen">Tuula Packalen</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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